Data Source: US EIA.
Shale oil production subtracted from this data to produce conventional oil data.
Data Source: US EIA.
US Department of Energy: US Shale oil to peak in 2027 at 14 million barrels per day.
Rest of World Data Source: Energy Institute
This model is uses a Hubbert Linearization along with a Nelder–Mead solver to simulate a peak oil curves.
Copyright © 2025 Will Martin and is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Check out the blog post for this model here.